Tesla Stock: EV Giant Reports Q1 Deliveries This Week. Expectations Are Rock Bottom.

Tesla (TSLA) reports global first-quarter delivery and production numbers this week with analysts and observers speculating vehicle sales could decline to levels not seen in around a year as weak EV demand has taken its toll. TSLA shares fell Monday.

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With the first quarter done, Wall Street consensus currently expects Q1 deliveries of 457,000 units, according to FactSet. This number started last week at 471,000 and has steadily dropped ahead of Tesla announcing global delivery numbers. The 457,000 figure likely includes several analyst forecasts that haven’t been updated in weeks or months.

Actual predictions appear to be more around Tesla’s 422,875 number from Q1 2023. The global EV giant hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023. The previous quarterly delivery record was in Q2 with 466,140.

Tesla announced Friday it had had produced six million cars, which led some observers to increase Q1 production estimates.

The EV giant is expected to report Q1 2024 deliveries Tuesday. Last year, Tesla reported first-quarter production and delivery numbers on April 2.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, cut his TSLA price target to 300, from 315, last week while calling the quarter a “nightmare” for Tesla. The analyst said he remains bullish on Tesla over the long term, despite “near-term dark storm demand clouds forming.”

Ives predicts Tesla deliveries of around 426,000 as the EV company has dealt with issues surrounding its Model 3 Highland upgrade in the U.S. along with slowing sales in Europe. However, Ives noted the “biggest and most concerning issue for Tesla” is China as “rising EV competition and a lingering price war has made this key market very challenging for Tesla the last year and especially this quarter.”

Ives wrote Wednesday that when Tesla reports global deliveries, it won’t be a “moment of celebration for the bulls and instead be a rip the Band-Aid quarter for Tesla investors.”

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, another Tesla bull, cut his Q1 delivery estimate to 425,000, down from 469,000, on Wednesday. Jonas…

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